Global fossil fuel emissions are set to fall in 2026: what the Hormuz crisis means for carbon accounting

Global fossil fuel emissions are set to fall by around 0.5% in 2026, according to analysis published by Carbon Brief, with the fallout from the Hormuz crisis identified as the primary driver. The decline is unusual. Emissions have risen in most recent years, and a geopolitically driven disruption to oil and gas flows is an unexpected mechanism for any kind of reduction. For carbon accountants working on Scope 1 and Scope 3 inventories, the signal matters because it affects the activity data and emissions factors underpinning current reporting cycles.

The Hormuz crisis has constrained the movement of fossil fuels through one of the world's most significant shipping chokepoints, reducing combustion activity across sectors that depend on that supply. For companies reporting under GHG Protocol frameworks, this creates a methodological question: how should a supply disruption rather than a structural transition be treated when constructing emissions baselines? The answer affects the comparability of 2026 figures against prior years and against science based targets set before the disruption occurred.

For ESG managers preparing CSRD disclosures or annual sustainability reports, the risk is that a 2026 baseline year may look artificially low relative to what a normalised year would show. Setting reduction targets from a suppressed baseline can flatter future performance and draw scrutiny from auditors and assurance providers. Procurement leads sourcing from energy intensive industries will also need to assess whether their supplier emissions data reflects the disruption or is being held at previous year averages.

Companies should document any material differences between their 2026 reported emissions and what their trajectory would look like absent the crisis. Auditors working to ISAE 3410 standards are increasingly attentive to contextual explanations attached to inventory data, and a year with an identifiable external shock warrants specific narrative disclosure. Internal sustainability teams should flag this to CFOs as a potential restatement risk if target setting uses 2026 as a new base year without adjustment.

The Carbon Brief analysis situates the 2026 decline in a longer pattern of plateauing and volatile global emissions. A single year fall driven by geopolitical disruption does not indicate a structural turning point, and professionals should be careful not to read it as evidence that sectoral decarbonisation is accelerating faster than planned. The underlying energy system remains heavily fossil dependent, and once trade routes normalise, activity levels and associated emissions are likely to recover.